Expected investments growth in Uzbekistan related to possible EAEU expansion

The new report of the Eurasian Development Bank (EADB) released on 1^st of July, informs about the possible investment growth in Uzbekistan, which is expected in case the country joins the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The analysts have also assessed the potential GDP growth in these conditions.

Uzbekistan is highly attractive from the viewpoint of expanding EAEU business relations and direct investments, as laid out in the new EADB report called “Uzbekistan and the EAEU: perspectives and potential effects of the economic integration». According to the analysts, if Uzbekistan enters the EAEU, the country can attract $1-1.5 billion of infrastructure investments.

The bank’s experts also concluded that it is precisely the lack of investments into Uzbekistan’s transportation and logistics that negatively impacts the rate and quality of transport. According to their assessment, the required volume of financing the transport structure of the country before 2030 can reach 2.1% of GDP per year. At the same time, if Uzbekistan joins the EAEU, the attracted investment will give 0.3-0.4% of real GDP growth per year.

The EADB analysts also assess that improving the integration of Uzbekistan and EAEU will positively impact Uzbekistan’s imports to the EAEU member countries. Potential growth is $1.2 billion, considering that in 2020 the exports from Uzbekistan to the EAEU were $3 billion.

Uzbekistan has become an observer of the EAEU in December of 2020. On 16^th of March the country’s parliament approved the roadmap for the integration with the EAEU, and a special department was created within the Ministry of Investments and External Trade of Uzbekistan, which will curate the cooperation with the EAEU.

Russia and Belarus have expressed wish for Uzbekistan to join the EAEU. The most promising cooperation pathways between the country and the EAEU are, according to the Eurasian Economic Commission, agricultural machine building, automobile and chemical industry, metallurgy, as well as manufacturing of construction materials and aviation industry.